With Nearly Two-Thirds of Diesel Shops Understaffed and a Shrinking Talent Pipeline, the Trucking Industry Faces a Defining Moment That Will Shape Fleet Operations for Years to Come
The commercial trucking industry moves more than 72 percent of all domestic freight tonnage across the United States, generating over $900 billion in annual revenue and employing millions of workers throughout the supply chain. Yet behind the drivers who keep goods moving and the dispatchers who coordinate logistics, an equally essential workforce is approaching a crisis point that threatens the operational viability of fleets nationwide: diesel technicians.
The diesel technician shortage has escalated from a manageable staffing challenge into a systemic workforce crisis that is reshaping how fleets operate, maintain their equipment, and plan for the future. Research published in 2025 by the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) revealed that 65.5 percent of diesel repair shops were understaffed, with an average of 19.3 percent of technician positions sitting unfilled. These are not abstract figures. They represent real trucks sitting idle in maintenance bays, real delivery deadlines being missed, and real revenue disappearing from fleet balance sheets every single day.
For an industry already contending with a prolonged freight recession, record-high operating costs, rising insurance premiums, and intensifying regulatory requirements, the technician shortage compounds every other challenge on the table. Understanding why this crisis has developed, how it impacts commercial transportation operations, and what solutions show the most promise is essential for business leaders, fleet operators, and anyone connected to the broader freight economy.
The Scope of the Diesel Technician Shortage
The scale of the problem becomes clearer when examined through workforce data. The trucking industry employs roughly 20 percent of the nation’s 286,500 diesel technicians, making it the single largest employer of this specialized trade. Yet the ratio of truck drivers to diesel technicians has been steadily widening. In 2013, there were 6.8 truck drivers for every diesel technician working in the industry. By 2024, that ratio had grown to 7.2 drivers per technician, even amid a softening freight market that reduced overall demand for drivers. More drivers per technician means heavier workloads, longer out-of-service delays, and greater pressure on the technicians who remain.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects approximately 28,000 new diesel technician job openings annually through the end of the decade, driven by both industry growth and the need to replace workers leaving the profession. Technical training programs across the country, however, produce only about 10,000 new graduates each year. This structural gap between demand and supply has persisted for years and shows no signs of closing through market forces alone.
The consequences of understaffing fall hardest on smaller fleets. Operations running five to twenty-five trucks lack the in-house maintenance infrastructure and dedicated recruiting resources available to larger carriers. These smaller companies represent the overwhelming majority of the industry—over 99 percent of trucking companies operate 100 trucks or fewer—and their collective maintenance challenges directly affect supply chain reliability across the national economy.
ATRI’s 2025 Critical Issues in the Trucking Industry report, based on survey responses from over 4,200 industry stakeholders, ranked the economy as the top concern for the third consecutive year, with insurance costs, lawsuit reform, and driver workforce challenges among the most urgent priorities. Notably, artificial intelligence in trucking debuted on the top-ten critical issues list for the first time in the survey’s 21-year history, reflecting the industry’s growing recognition that technology must play a central role in addressing operational constraints including workforce shortfalls.
The Financial Cost of Empty Maintenance Bays
Every unfilled diesel technician position generates a cascading financial impact that extends far beyond the salary that would have been paid. Industry analysts estimate that the technician shortfall contributes to approximately $2.4 billion in lost revenue annually across the trucking sector, driven by underutilized vehicles and deferred maintenance that compounds into increasingly expensive repairs over time.
The mathematics at the individual fleet level are straightforward and unforgiving. A single out-of-service truck can cost a fleet upward of $850 per day in lost productivity, and some estimates place the total loss from each unfilled technician position at more than $1,200 daily when accounting for backlog effects across an entire maintenance operation. When repair bays are short-staffed, trucks sit idle longer waiting for service. Preventive maintenance schedules slip. Minor issues that would have been caught during routine inspections escalate into roadside breakdowns that require emergency service, towing, driver detention pay, and cargo delays that damage customer relationships.
ATRI’s 2025 operational costs analysis found that the average cost of operating a commercial truck reached $2.26 per mile, with repair and maintenance expenses averaging just under 20 cents per mile and accounting for 8.9 percent of total fleet operating costs. While maintenance costs dipped slightly in 2024—largely attributed to younger average fleet ages following delayed pandemic-era truck deliveries—early 2025 data showed a 2.8 percent increase in the first quarter, suggesting the reprieve was temporary. Tariff-driven parts cost increases and sustained labor market pressures are expected to push maintenance expenditures higher through 2026.
The downstream effects extend further when considering that fleets handled approximately 60 percent of their maintenance in-house during 2024, with smaller fleets outsourcing a considerably greater share of work to dealers and independent repair facilities. Outsourced maintenance is inherently more expensive, and as external service providers face their own technician shortages, turnaround times lengthen and costs escalate for every fleet in their service network.
Shops operating with underqualified technicians face additional financial exposure that compounds the problem. Research indicates that maintenance facilities staffed with insufficiently trained workers experience approximately 16 percent more rework and warranty claims compared to those with fully qualified teams. This rework consumes labor hours, parts, and bay time that could otherwise be generating productive throughput.
Why the Talent Pipeline Is Failing
The root causes of the diesel technician shortage are structural rather than cyclical, which is precisely why the problem has proven so resistant to simple solutions like across-the-board wage increases. While compensation is certainly a factor in recruitment and retention, the pipeline failures run considerably deeper.
Insufficient Formal Training and Curricula Gaps
According to ATRI’s 2025 research on the qualified diesel technician shortage, 61.8 percent of technicians enter the profession without any meaningful formal training. Employers must then invest an average of 357 training hours and approximately $8,200 in trainee wages to bring these workers to a baseline level of competence. Even among graduates of formal training programs, more than 30 percent were rated unqualified across 20 core skill areas by the shops that hired them.
Declining enrollment in postsecondary diesel technology programs compounds the challenge, with annual completions falling below 11,000. Meanwhile, curricula at many programs have not kept pace with the rapid technological evolution of modern diesel engines—particularly the sophisticated electronic controls, emissions aftertreatment systems, and diagnostic software platforms that define current heavy-duty powertrains.
The ATRI data reveals a nuanced picture that points toward targeted solutions. In seven core skill areas, each additional hour of formal training improved technician qualification by more than 16 percent, demonstrating that training works when it addresses the right competencies. In six other skill areas, however, additional training hours yielded less than 8 percent improvement, suggesting curricula in those domains need fundamental redesign rather than simply more classroom time.
Barriers to Entry and Early-Career Attrition
New technicians face substantial barriers during the critical first years of their careers. The upfront cost of purchasing professional-grade tools is the most commonly reported obstacle, followed by the challenge of building diagnostic confidence quickly enough to feel competent and productive. Starting pay, while competitive with many other trades, is often cited as insufficient relative to the physical demands and complexity of the work.
These early-career challenges drive turnover rates that make the shortage self-reinforcing. ATRI found an average annual technician turnover rate of 16.5 percent industry-wide, with understaffed shops experiencing 18.1 percent turnover compared to 7.8 percent at fully staffed facilities. The correlation reveals a vicious cycle: understaffing creates heavier workloads and reduces mentoring capacity for remaining staff, which accelerates burnout and departure, which deepens understaffing further.
Intense Competition from Adjacent Industries
Perhaps the most alarming finding is that 44 percent of current diesel technicians in trucking are actively considering switching to alternative employment, particularly in the automotive and agricultural equipment sectors. Technicians cited dissatisfaction with pay, management practices, and a lack of work variety as primary motivators for exploring other opportunities.
The competition for skilled trades workers extends well beyond the transportation sector. Construction, energy, manufacturing, and agricultural equipment industries all compete for the same finite talent pool, often offering comparable compensation along with working conditions that some technicians find more appealing. With more than half of current diesel technicians over 45 years old and fewer young workers entering vocational education pathways, the available pool of candidates continues to shrink across every industry that depends on this specialized expertise.
How Technology Is Reshaping the Maintenance Equation
While technology alone cannot solve a labor shortage, it is increasingly central to how progressive fleets manage the widening gap between technician supply and maintenance demand. The strategic deployment of fleet maintenance technologies helps existing technicians work more efficiently, focus their time on the highest-value tasks, and prevent failures that would have required costly emergency intervention.
Predictive Maintenance and AI-Driven Diagnostics
Predictive maintenance platforms powered by artificial intelligence represent one of the most impactful developments for addressing the maintenance workforce challenge. These systems continuously analyze data from engine control modules, telematics devices, and onboard sensors to identify developing mechanical issues before they result in breakdowns. By detecting problems days or weeks before failure occurs, predictive maintenance allows shops to schedule repairs during planned downtime, reducing total labor hours per repair event and eliminating many costly emergency service calls entirely.
ATRI’s operational data confirms that preventive maintenance practices generally improve mileage between breakdowns and reduce overall repair expenditures. Fleets implementing data-driven maintenance strategies consistently achieve lower per-mile costs than those relying on reactive approaches. Industry resources covering diesel engine diagnostics and fleet maintenance strategies provide fleet managers with practical frameworks for adopting these technologies within their existing operations and measuring the return on investment.
Digital Workflows and Remote Diagnostics
Telematics integration, digital work order management, and remote diagnostic capabilities further extend technician productivity by reducing time spent on administrative tasks, parts sourcing, and initial fault diagnosis. When a technician can approach a vehicle with a tablet displaying its complete fault code history, maintenance records, and a prioritized repair checklist, the time from bay entry to road-ready completion decreases measurably. These efficiency gains compound across every service event throughout the year.
Remote diagnostics also enables experienced technicians to guide less experienced colleagues through complex repair procedures from a distance, directly addressing the knowledge gap that results when training programs cannot fully prepare graduates for real-world diagnostic challenges. This mentoring capability is particularly valuable for fleets operating across multiple locations where senior technicians cannot be physically present at every facility.
Recruitment and Retention Strategies That Deliver Results
Solving the diesel technician shortage requires a multi-pronged approach that addresses recruitment, training, and retention simultaneously. The most successful fleet maintenance operations are treating technician workforce development with the same strategic rigor and sustained investment they apply to driver recruitment programs.
Building Training Program Partnerships
ATRI’s research demonstrates that partnerships between diesel shops and technical training programs produce measurably better outcomes across multiple dimensions. Shops that actively recruit from training programs report lower turnover, lower vacancy rates, and a higher percentage of qualified technicians on staff. A median-sized shop with 16 technicians that partners with local training programs saves approximately $14,900 on technician wages during on-the-job training compared to shops of equivalent size without such partnerships.
Shops that go further by collaborating on internships and curricula development achieved vacancy rates 5.2 percentage points lower than those that did not engage in such collaboration. These deeper partnerships create a direct talent pipeline while simultaneously ensuring that training curricula reflect the actual skills and competencies employers need on the shop floor.
Rethinking Compensation and Workplace Quality
While competitive base wages remain essential—diesel shops reported a mean starting rate of $23 per hour and a top-end rate of $38.35 per hour—the most effective retention strategies extend well beyond the paycheck. Technicians consistently rank interesting and varied work assignments among their top priorities when evaluating employment opportunities. Shops providing career progression pathways, specialization tracks, and exposure to advanced diagnostic technologies retain their workforce more effectively than those offering higher base pay but repetitive, reactive work environments.
Tool purchase assistance programs, continuing education benefits, and structured mentoring from senior technicians also emerge as meaningful differentiators in both recruitment and retention efforts. For an occupation where the upfront cost of professional tools is the single most cited barrier to career entry, employer-provided tool programs or financing assistance remove a significant obstacle that discourages promising entry-level candidates.
Engaging the Next Generation
The long-term solution to the technician shortage requires engaging potential candidates well before they reach the workforce. Fleets and industry associations investing in partnerships with high schools, community colleges, and vocational programs are building the talent pipeline that will sustain the profession for decades. Industry coverage of commercial trucking workforce development and career pathways highlights how scholarship programs, equipment donations, and shop-sponsored internships demonstrate to young people that diesel technology offers a viable, well-compensated career with genuine advancement potential and long-term job security.
The broader cultural challenge of attracting younger generations to skilled trades careers demands deliberate attention. The diesel maintenance profession must communicate effectively that modern technicians work with sophisticated electronic systems, advanced diagnostic software platforms, and increasingly complex powertrains that rival any technology-sector role in intellectual challenge and problem-solving complexity.
The Regulatory and Market Context Amplifying the Crisis
The technician shortage does not exist in isolation. It intersects with virtually every other major challenge facing commercial trucking in 2026, amplifying the operational and financial impact of each.
New EPA emissions regulations taking effect with model year 2027 trucks will introduce additional complexity to diesel powertrains, requiring technicians to develop new competencies in advanced aftertreatment systems and emissions control technologies. The availability of technicians qualified to service these more complex systems will be a critical factor in how smoothly the transition proceeds for fleets across the country.
The ongoing freight recession has forced many carriers into replacement-only equipment strategies, extending the service life of existing trucks rather than investing in fleet expansion. Older equipment inherently demands more maintenance attention, creating a paradox where economic conditions that reduce fleet capital investment simultaneously increase the workload placed on an already insufficient technician workforce.
Rising insurance costs—premiums have increased 36 percent per mile over the past eight years according to ATRI—further compress fleet margins, limiting the financial resources available for technician compensation improvements and technology investments that could improve maintenance efficiency. The interconnected nature of these pressures makes clear that addressing the technician shortage is not merely a human resources challenge but a strategic imperative affecting every dimension of fleet operations and profitability.
What the Industry Must Do Now
The diesel technician shortage will not resolve itself through market forces alone. The structural gap between training output and industry demand is too large, the competing industries drawing technicians away are too numerous, and the demographic headwinds are too strong. Meaningful progress requires coordinated action across multiple dimensions.
Training institutions must modernize curricula to reflect the technological reality of current and incoming diesel powertrains, including electronic engine management, advanced aftertreatment systems, telematics integration, and OEM diagnostic platforms. ATRI’s research found that targeted training improves technician qualification by more than 16 percent per hour of instruction—but only when content aligns with actual workplace requirements and is regularly updated.
Fleet operators must invest in maintenance workplace environments that attract and retain skilled workers. This means competitive compensation, modern shop facilities, access to current diagnostic technology, structured career development pathways, and manageable workloads that allow technicians to perform quality work rather than constantly triaging emergency repairs.
Equipment manufacturers and technology providers must continue developing tools that amplify technician productivity—from predictive maintenance platforms that reduce unplanned repair volume to remote diagnostics enabling experienced technicians to mentor colleagues across multiple locations. Every technology investment making an existing technician more productive effectively expands the available workforce without requiring an additional hire.
Industry associations, government agencies, and educational institutions must collaborate to elevate the profile of diesel technology as a career path, reaching potential candidates at the high school level and demonstrating the intellectual challenge, earning potential, and long-term job security the profession offers. The TechForce Foundation estimated that 177,000 new entrants were needed in the diesel technician field between 2022 and 2026 alone. Meeting even a fraction of that target requires a fundamental shift in how the profession is perceived and promoted.
The Road Ahead
The diesel technician shortage represents one of the most consequential workforce challenges facing the commercial trucking industry today. Its effects ripple through fleet operations, supply chain reliability, maintenance costs, and ultimately the price and availability of goods that consumers and businesses depend on daily. In an industry that moves nearly three-quarters of all domestic freight, the condition of the maintenance workforce is inseparable from the condition of the national economy.
Unlike challenges that respond to economic cycles or regulatory adjustments, the technician shortage is fundamentally a human capital problem requiring sustained, strategic investment in people, training infrastructure, and workplace quality. The fleets, shops, training programs, and industry organizations that recognize this reality and commit to decisive action will be best positioned to maintain reliable operations and competitive performance as the industry evolves through one of its most demanding periods.
The commercial trucking industry has always found ways to adapt and overcome. From deregulation to electronic logging mandates to emissions standards, the sector has repeatedly demonstrated its capacity for transformation when the stakes are clear. The diesel technician shortage demands that same resilience and determination—applied not to equipment or regulations, but to the skilled professionals whose expertise and commitment keep America’s trucks on the road.