Commodity markets are undergoing a period of significant change. While 2024 brought a series of surprises, including a sharp rise in cocoa and gold prices, the upcoming year 2025 promises no less dynamic developments. According to the latest analyses, the commodity sector is expected to experience several major trends that will significantly impact global trade and investment strategies.
Geopolitical Turbulence Will Impact the Energy Sector
Energy markets in 2025 will be significantly affected by an unfavorable geopolitical situation. Unfortunately, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue, and growing tensions between China and the West also bring additional risks. Changes are anticipated in emerging markets such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, which are strengthening their positions in global supply chains. At the same time, India is expected to grow in importance as a key trading partner for commodity markets, creating new trade corridors beyond traditional routes.
OPEC+ Faces Difficult Decisions
The OPEC+ group finds itself in a challenging position. A strong increase in oil production in North and South America, combined with slowing demand, is putting pressure on prices. The price of Brent crude oil is expected to potentially drop below $70 per barrel during 2025. Read more about the group.
Natural Gas Will Face Tough Times
The natural gas market is set for a dynamic year. The expiration of the five-year Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement at the end of 2024 will increase demand for LNG. This shift is expected to have a significant impact on the European energy market. A key role will be played by new LNG export capacity in the Gulf of Mexico. Analysts predict that gas prices in the U.S. will rise sharply, with the average price expected to climb above $4 per MMBtu compared to less than $3 in the previous two years. This is because export demand will grow faster than domestic production.
Persistent Challenges in the Steel Industry
The steel sector is struggling with excess capacity, a challenge that is expected to worsen further in 2025. Weak demand in China and overproduction are driving prices downward. The situation is further complicated by the planned launch of new production capacities over the next two years.
Gold Remains a Safe Haven
Gold is expected to continue benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty and more accommodative monetary policies. Central banks, especially from developing countries (such as China, which has bought 180 tons in the last two years), are purchasing more gold for their reserves, which will lead to further increases in gold prices. Analysts expect that gold will remain one of the best-performing assets in 2025.
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Prices of agricultural commodities are expected to find their bottom and rebound upwards. Markets are well-supplied, as reflected in favorable stock-to-consumption ratios (for example, the stock-to-consumption ratio for soybeans is the highest in the last 17 years). However, rising fertilizer prices will increase farmers’ costs, preventing further price declines. Rice is expected to become cheaper due to the easing of Indian export restrictions, while mild price increases are expected for corn and wheat, though these will not reach the levels seen in 2021–2023.
Coffee Back to Normal
After a dramatic 72% rise in coffee prices in 2024—primarily caused by unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil and increasing demand from emerging markets—the situation is expected to stabilize in 2025. Analysts predict a price drop of approximately 9%, thanks to the gradual recovery of production in major growing regions.
Effective Monitoring of Commodity Market Trends with Semantic Visions
In this volatile environment, it is essential to closely monitor the current developments in the commodity markets and promptly identify emerging trends. We recommend using advanced analytical tools such as the sv EYE from Semantic Visions, which processes vast amounts of OSINT data in real time. These will provide you with a significant competitive advantage in strategic decision-making.