Robust Q2 earnings, cost-saving programme and US drug-pricing negotiations reshape investment outlook for global pharmaceuticals sector into 2026
Merifund Capital Management highlights that Pfizer’s decision today to raise its full-year adjusted earnings forecast to $2.90 to 3.10 per share places renewed emphasis on operational efficiency across the pharmaceuticals industry, and investors respond by driving the stock 4% higher to $23.25.
The upgrade follows a 30% year-to-date rise in adjusted net income to $4.43 billion and quarterly revenue of $14.65 billion, more than $1 billion above consensus. Merifund Capital Management writes that Pfizer’s revised guidance “signals renewed confidence in large-cap pharmaceuticals at a time when investors prefer earnings visibility to unproven pipeline narratives”.
Over the preceding 12-month period sales of COVID-19 therapeutics have stabilised. Comirnaty contributes $381 million, up 96% year-on-year, while antiviral treatment Paxlovid delivers $427 million, an increase of 71%. Established therapies also strengthen the income base: alliance revenue from anticoagulant Eliquis reaches $2.04 billion, a 6% rise that underlines the resilience of mature brands.
Management now targets cumulative savings of $7.7 billion by 2027 and confirms that $4.3 billion will be realised by end-2025 through measures such as streamlining sales operations and digitising research workflows. Merifund Capital Management observes that “cost discipline of this scale improves free-cash conversion and grants management latitude to fund the next wave of oncology trials without compromising shareholder distributions”.
Regulatory uncertainty continues to frame investment decisions. Draft Most Favoured Nation rules require 17 manufacturers to align US drug prices with the lowest rates across the OECD by 29 September 2025. Pfizer states that discussions with policymakers remain constructive, yet independent modelling suggests pricing parity could cut early-stage biotechnology investment by as much as 90% over a decade.
Merifund Capital Management’s analysis concludes that well-capitalised incumbents stand to benefit if tighter pricing rules divert funding away from smaller producers, accelerating deal flow across the sector. The firm notes that credit spreads on Pfizer’s 2030 USD notes have already tightened 18 basis points week-to-date, reflecting a broader re-rating of issuers that combine balance-sheet strength with visible cost action.
About Merifund Capital Management
Founded in 2010, Merifund Capital Management Pte Ltd (UEN 201024554E) is a Singapore-headquartered hedge-fund manager specialising in long-only mandates, long/short equity, global macro, event-driven and systematic strategies. The firm selectively employs derivatives to optimise participation while maintaining a core focus on capital preservation, liquidity and disciplined risk oversight. Environmental, social and governance factors permeate every stage of the investment process in accordance with leading international sustainability codes. Merifund serves accredited investors, family offices, foundations and endowments and is preparing to extend selected strategies to retail clients. Further insight appears at https://merifund.com/insights. Media enquiries: Mr. Tao Yang at media@merifund.com or visit https://merifund.com.